Economists see little room for rates to fall, with forecasts keeping them above 6% through 2026, though earlier projections pointed to a possible dip to 5.7%.
Washington — Mortgage rates ended March near their highest levels since mid-2025. In an ominous sign for the spring homebuying season, it's possible they'll keep rising, mortgage experts say.
Blame the war in Iran, which has sent oil prices soaring in recent weeks. Higher energy prices translate to both higher inflation and rising 10-year Treasury yields. And both of those things exert upward pressure on mortgage rates.
As of March 25, the average 30-year mortgage rate was 6.44%, according to Bankrate's weekly lender survey.
"Last month, we were counting the reasons mortgage rates would head lower. Now, we are looking for reasons for them to stop rising," says Stephen Kates, Bankrate's financial analyst. "Concerns over geopolitical instability and rising inflation have pushed mortgage rates to their highest level since summer 2025. Without concrete progress toward de-escalation in the Middle East, mortgage rates will continue to sit above 6.5% and could move higher on further bad news."
Most housing economists say it's unlikely rates will fall much further. The Mortgage Bankers Association calls for rates to stay above 6% for the rest of 2026, but Fannie Mae's latest forecast calls for them to fall to 5.7% by the end of the year. A caveat: That forecast was released before the recent run-up in rates.
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