Mortgage rates rose this week as Middle East tensions pushed oil prices higher, while a weaker jobs report added new uncertainty to the economic outlook.
Washington — Mortgage rates increased this week following news of a new war in the Middle East.
In the week ending March 6, the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate went up seven basis points from the week prior to 5.94%, according to rates provided to NerdWallet by Zillow. (A basis point is one one-hundredth of a percentage point.)
APRs for 30-year fixed mortgages averaged 5.92% in February, down seven basis points from January's average and down 84 basis points from February 2025.
How conflict in Iran affects mortgage rates
As the fourth-largest oil producer in OPEC (the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries), Iran's instability means oil price instability. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell nearly 800 points on Thursday as U.S. oil prices surged, according to the Wall Street Journal. Rising oil costs have stoked investor concerns about inflation.
The further that inflation moves above the Federal Reserve's 2% target rate, the less likely central bankers are to lower overnight borrowing rates. This has an indirect effect on mortgage rates; when the federal funds rate is lowered, it's cheaper for banks to borrow from one another to fund mortgages, and those savings can be passed along to borrowers.
Beth M. Hammack, president of the Cleveland Federal Reserve and voting member of the Federal Open Market Committee, told the New York Times this week that she expects the Fed to hold rates steady "for quite some time" as central bankers wait for concrete data about the potential effects of the Iranian conflict on inflation.
"If we don't see inflation moving toward target as I expect, it could mean that we need to put more restrictions on the economy," she said.
In other words, if inflation really spikes, some central bankers might even push to raise rates.
For those members of the Federal Open Market Committee who are more concerned with inflation, this could position them in direct conflict with the president's nominee for the next Fed chair, Kevin Warsh. President Trump has made it clear that he expects Warsh to align with his goal of slashing rates, even joking during a speech at a Washington dinner in January that he'd sue if Warsh didn't get it done.
The U.S. lost jobs in February
The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released the February jobs report this morning, revealing weaker-than-expected employment numbers. While it was projected that the U.S. would have added 50,000 jobs, the report showed a net loss of 92,000. The unemployment rate remained flat at 4.4%.
The job losses aren't exactly as dramatic as they sound. They can be mostly attributed to slowed hiring in health care, which the BLS links to strike activity. Employment growth has been largely concentrated in that sector, so this change is bringing down employment numbers as a whole.
"While slow growth doesn't beget a very strong economy, it's not always cause for panic," says Elizabeth Renter, senior economist at NerdWallet.
"However, this jobs report changes the calculus for the Fed meeting in a few weeks – the labor market remains on uncertain footing."
As of Friday afternoon, analysts are still largely predicting that central bankers will keep rates steady at their meeting later this month.
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